I’ve been saving some questions for my birthday (it was Wednesday), and now that it’s come, I’m prepared to make some car predictions for 2024.
If you’d like me to answer a question, email it to me at mike@machineswithsouls.com.
Questions
Hi Mike. Wondering what you think of government mandates for electric cars (I still see a lot of ICE on your site)? Is the 2035 rule really going to happen in states that have passed it?
– Phil
Mike–Will the next M3 really be electric-only? I see BMW has trademarked the iM3 name, but then came out and said they won’t use it. What will you do with your M3?
– Jen
Hello Mike. Hoping you can help with some buying advice. Looking at a new Blackwing, but interest rates are really high. I’m worried that Cadillac won’t be making it much longer. Do you think I should pull the trigger? I’d hate to miss out, but 8% on a loan is driving me nuts.
– Matt
Mike, after reading your 4 Series review, I’m wondering if BMW has lost the plot. I have a G80 like you, and I’m indifferent about it. I’ve only had it about a year, but am thinking of selling it. Just wondering if you feel the same, since you drive so many cars.
– Terry
Bold car prediction for 2024 #1: Buy your dream car, but wait six months
Let’s work back first, and tackle Matt’s Blackwing question. Financial advice isn’t really my thing, but if you’re like Matt and concerned your favorite car might not be available much longer, maybe I can help. Some things to consider:
- Offers from the manufacturer change at the beginning of every month, and though the holidays are a time of good offers, they can carry through to the new year.
- Right now, rates such as 2.9% are available on the CT-5, but only for up to 36 months. They are also offering $2,000 off the MSRP.
- Car loan rates are based on many things, but they stem from the federal government increasing or decreasing the cost for banks to loan money. The rumor is that the feds will lower the overall interest rates in 2024.
So in short, maybe wait six months (if you can) and see how the interest rates will be affected. I doubt they will go any higher. If you’re looking for a few tips when buying, consider:
- That $2,000 isn’t from the dealer, but from GM. That means they reimburse the dealer the money. When doing your deal, work on the MSRP, wait until you have their final offer, then mention the $2,000 credit. Otherwise, the dealer won’t mention it, and then take it from GM anyway.
- A difference in interest rate from 8% to 5% can mean almost $9,000 in saving on a $106,000 car.
A new car is never a good financial decision unless you really need it and can pay for it outright. In 2023, we lost the Audi R8, the Dodge Challenger and Charger, the Camaro and others. But if you want a car like this (you do), 2024 is the time.
Bold car predictions for 2024 #2: The BMW M3 won’t be all electric for a long time
There is precedence for an all-electric M3, because the car has never repeated its powertrain, unlike some other “legacy” sports cars. You know the drill Jen – a new one comes out that’s very different from the old one, everyone hates it, then in six months they all buy it.
But an electric motor might just be too big a leap. Everyone I know modifies their M3, and BMW prides itself on setting lap times at the ‘Ring. What will they do, put an asterisk saying *Good for two laps only? Doesn’t sound very M to me. People track these things. Also consider weight. An i4 M50 tips the scales at over 5,000 pounds. An M3 would need bigger batteries, adding even more weight.
Power adds speed in straight lights. Reducing weight adds speed everywhere.
Trademarking the name “iM3” is likely little more than a protective measure to keep the M3 name itself safe. If there is to be an electric M3, I doubt it happens in this decade.
Bold car predictions for 2024 #3: No one will meet the 2035 all-electric date
While it might not make sense to have an electric M3, automakers are starting to churn out regular models with more frequency. So far, no one wants them.
Ten years is a long time in the car world, but some things are outside of the control of automakers. Things like, oh, I dunno…infrastructure. Or raw materials, and where in the world we get those materials from.
Logistically, how do you enforce it? Does the clock strick midnight on Decemerb 31, 2034 and that’s it, all the gas cars turn into pumpkins? What about states that don’t outlaw gas cars?
The answer here is no – I don’t think everyone will have their ducks in a row by then.
Bold car predictions for 2024 #4: BMW will sell more cars than ever
They have been, consistently, for many years, so my headline should not be news.
But Terry asks a good question – have they become mainstream? Remember, BMWs used to be at least a bit weird, from center-console window switches to putting a V-10 in a family sedan. No one was doing the things BMW did.
What’s happening at BMW, and has been for many years, is that Mercedes sells even more cars. BMW looks at them, sees the luxury and mainstream appeal to consumers, and believes that in order to reach that level, they must make their cars conform. To be fair, they are correct – look at their success.
But it’s also a failing. The steering on a C Class is light to the touch. People would test drive a 3 Series and deem it “too rough” or too heavy by comparison, and go buy the Merc. They didn’t want to turn the wheel in the mall parking lot. So BMW made it lighter until it was no longer a complaint from the consumer at large. M folks are prideful, but we make up just a small percentage of the BMW audience at large.
What I wrote in the 4 Series review is true. That tagline of “Ultimate Driving Machine” arrived in the 70s, and now BMW is sort of stuck with it. They don’t want to be, and they no longer make cars that are. I still don’t understand the logic of the G80, which is fast and dynamically excellent, but also cold and devoid of feedback.
But they sell a ton of them. How many Blackwings did Cadillac sell? Did you even consider one? I didn’t, until I drove one. But Caddy has to get you into the building first.
I still love the brand, and the cars, but just know that to get that Ultimate Driving Machine, you must spend a lot more than the basic MSRP. And even then…
Want your car reviewed?
If you live in the tri-state area and want me to check it out, send me an email!
Support the cause
Commissions may be received for product links on this site. Help out if you can.
I use Nikon camera bodies and lenses, a Westcott Ice Light 2, Manfrotto tripod, B + W filters and an iMac Pro to make the art you see here.
